THE total number of homes completed in Scotland is at the lowest level since Covid with starts having also fallen by 41%, Scottish Government figures show.
The data follows a recent Homes for Scotland (HFS) report highlighting why allocated land doesn’t always deliver more homes and predicting that housing completions could fall to as low as 5,000 per annum by 2031.
Responding to today’s statistics, HFS chief executive Jane Wood, said, “These figures are another clear warning that Scotland remains on a deeply concerning housing trajectory. Whilst increases in affordable approvals and starts are welcome, it must be acknowledged these are rising from an extremely low base whilst completions have fallen again across all tenures to 17,268.
“Unfortunately, this is not a surprise to us as it is in line with our own analysis. Worryingly, however, the number is over 20 per cent less the combined local authority forecast of 22,402, adding further pressure on households, communities, public services and the wider economy.”
She highlighted a decline of almost 12% in private sector starts as being of particular concern given the crucial role private delivery plays in supporting social and affordable homes through land, infrastructure, developer contributions and cross subsidy.
Jane continued, “Scotland’s land supply crisis must be addressed with urgency. Allocating sites is not enough if they are constrained, unviable or unable to come forward at the pace required. We need a planning system that consistently identifies, releases and supports effective land for homes of all tenures.”
“Our development viability research also reinforces a point that can no longer be ignored. Sites that are not viable will not deliver homes, no matter how often they appear in audits or plans.
“Rising costs, policy requirements, infrastructure pressures and delays are making delivery more challenging, particularly in areas where margins are tight and housing need is greatest.
“That is why we need a renewed focus on practical delivery. The Scottish Government, local authorities and partners across the public and private sectors must work together to remove barriers, restore confidence and ensure housing policy supports delivery rather than adding further cost or complexity.
“We have had positive engagement with the Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice and Housing in this regard, with the First Homes Fund a welcome example of government action to support First Time Buyers and stimulate wider investment confidence. The new national housing agency also has great potential to bring simplicity, scale and speed to delivery, but commercial insight and all-tenure expertise must be built into its design from the outset if it is to be effective.
“We look forward to working collaboratively with ministers and officials to reverse the downward trend in supply to meet housing need, support economic growth, sustain local communities and enable Scotland’s transition to net zero.”
Scottish Federation of Housing Associations, chief executive Richard Meade, said, “Despite Scotland last month entering the third year of its housing emergency, today’s statistics show that housing completions continue to falter whilst more families wait in desperate need of a safe, warm and affordable home.
“Whilst it is welcome that the decline in starts and approvals has been halted and we’re seeing some tentative green shoots of recovery, the bigger picture shows that the number of homes being approved is still almost half below pre-pandemic levels.
“We are under no illusion that the systemic issues holding back delivery of social homes can be solved overnight, but we do urgently need the Scottish Government to set out how it will build on this early progress and match it with the pace this emergency demands. Put simply, if we are to give any hope to the nearly 10,500 children growing up in temporary accommodation then the Programme for Government this autumn must be a Programme for Housing.
“The scale of this emergency demands urgency, political willingness and a fully-funded plan to deliver the 15,693 social and affordable homes Scotland needs each year of this parliament. This Parliament cannot fail housing. The consequences for our economy, health, education and wellbeing would be devastating.”
