INCREASED demand in the office sector provided a welcome boost for Scotland’s commercial property market in the last quarter.
The findings were revealed in the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Commercial Property Monitor.
Overall occupier demand increased through the third quarter of the year, with a net balance of 10% of Scottish respondents reporting an increase, up from 3% in the previous survey.
Looking at the sub-sectors, in Q3, a net balance of 21% of respondents reported a rise in demand for office space, which is up from the 5% seen in Q2 and the second highest balance seen across other UK regions behind London. A net balance of 14% of Scottish respondents reported an uptick in demand for industrial space, whilst a net balance of -3% of surveyors reported a fall in demand for retail space.
However, investor demand appears to have taken a dip. A net balance of -10% of surveyors in Scotland reported investment enquiries at all-sector level declined for the second consecutive quarter. Both office and retail space saw falls in demand from investors (net balances of -15% and-18% respectively), and whilst industrial space saw rise in investor demand, it was only marginally so (a net balance of 4%).
Despite this, capital values are expected to rise over the next three months. A net balance of 20% of respondents anticipate an increase at all-sector level, down from the 31% seen in the previous survey. Capital values for both office and industrial space are expected to rise through the final quarter of the year, whereas capital values for retail space are expected to decline. Surveyors remain optimistic on the 12-month outlook for capital values too, with a net balance of 30% anticipating capital values to rise at all-sector level.
Looking at rental expectations, a net balance of 22% of surveyors in Scotland expect rents to rise through the final quarter of the year, down from the 28% seen in Q2. A net balance of 45% expects rents to rise for industrial space, while a net balance of 21% expects rents for office space to increase. Rents for retail space are expected to fall flat.
Survey respondent Stuart Hall of Kingsmead Developments in Glasgow said that market confidence has been impacted by world events and economic uncertainty at a UK level.
Commenting on the UK picture, RICS head of market research & analysis, Tarrant Parsons, said, “The latest UK Commercial Property Monitor illustrates reduced market activity. Both occupier and investor demand experienced slight dips this quarter. A cocktail of elevated bond yields, above-target inflation, and fiscal policy uncertainty is creating caution across investors.
“Landlords remain under pressure to offer increasingly generous incentives as vacancy rates continue to move higher. Meanwhile, the appetite for secondary assets continues to wane. Although prime and alternative sectors still offer pockets of resilience, the near-term outlook has become more subdued amid an increasingly challenging near-term macro environment.”
